Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

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2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

UPDATED: Dec 23, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: This category could present an opportunity to finally reward eight-time nominee Paul Thomas Anderson for his coming-of-age comedy, “Licorice Pizza.” He’ll face some stiff competition. 

Kenneth Branagh’s semi-autobiographical film “Belfast” is opening in theaters this week and has already attracted an immense amount of Oscar buzz, currently sitting as the frontrunner for best picture, director and several other categories. With honors and audience awards from various festivals, the Focus Features black-and-white drama has the famed filmmaker on a path to make Oscar history.

For “Belfast,” Branagh serves as one of the producers (along with Laura Berwick, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas), which makes him eligible to be nominated for best picture, along with director and original screenplay. He’s received five nominations during his career, all across different categories – director, actor, supporting actor (“My Week with Marilyn”), adapted screenplay (“Hamlet”) and live action short (“Swan Song”).

Pending any unforeseen catastrophe, Branagh is on track to add two new categories to his arsenal (picture and original screenplay). This possibility could set a couple of records for the Ireland native. First, he would tie George Clooney, Alfonso Cuarón and Walt Disney as the only ones to be nominated in six different categories if he picks up one of the two. Second, capturing both would make Branagh the first person in Oscar history to pick up noms in seven individual categories, surpassing all of them.

In addition, Branagh would join the company of Clooney and Warren Beatty as the only people to have received noms in every eligible major category — picture, director, lead or supporting acting and either screenplay.

Oscar nominations voting begins on Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022, and will end on Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022. The official Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2022, with the ceremony taking place on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022.

Awards Season Calendar (2021-2022)


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Actor Jude Hill (left) on the set of BELFAST, a Focus Features release. Credit: Rob Youngson/Focus Features
Rob Youngson

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:
RANK FILM DISTRIBUTOR WRITER(S)
1 “Licorice Pizza” MGM/United Artists Releasing Paul Thomas Anderson
2 “Belfast” Focus Features Kenneth Branagh
3 “King Richard” Warner Bros Zach Baylin
4 “C’mon C’mon” A24 Mike Mills
5 “Don’t Look Up” Netflix Adam McKay, David Sirota
NEXT IN LINE
6 “Being the Ricardos” Amazon Studios Aaron Sorkin
7 “A Hero” Amazon Studios Asghar Farhadi
8 “Pig” Neon Michael Sarnoski, Vanessa Block
9 “Parallel Mothers” Sony Pictures Classics Pedro Almodóvar
10 “The French Dispatch” Searchlight Pictures Wes Anderson, Jason Schwartzman, Roman Coppola
OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS
11 “The Harder They Fall” Netflix Jeymes Samuel, Boaz Yakin
12 “Red Rocket” A24 Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch
13 “The Card Counter” Focus Features Paul Schrader
14 “Mass” Bleecker Street Fran Kranz
15 “Titane” Neon Julia Ducournau, Jacques Akchoti, Simonetta Greggio
16 “Spencer” Neon/Topic Studios Steven Knight
17 “Stillwater” Focus Features Tom McCarthy, Marcus Hinchey, Thomas Bidegain, Noe Debre
18 “Encanto” Walt Disney Pictures Jared Bush, Charise Castro Smith
19 “Respect” MGM/United Artists Releasing Callie Khouri, Tracey Scott Wilson
20 “Last Night in Soho” Focus Features Edgar Wright
ALSO IN CONTENTION
21 “Jockey” Sony Pictures Classics Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
22 “Nine Days” Sony Pictures Classics Edson Oda
23 “Flee” Neon Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Amin
24 “The Hand of God” Netflix Paolo Sorrentino
25 “Blue Bayou” Focus Features Justin Chon
26 “Bergman Island” IFC Films Mia Hansen-Løve
27 “Swan Song” Apple Original Films Benjamin Cleary
28 “Language Lessons” Shout! Studios Natalie Morales
29 “Luca” Pixar Jesse Andrews, Mike Jones
30 “Annette” Amazon Studios Ron Mael, Russell Mael
UNRANKED LISTING
“7 Prisoners” Netflix Thayná Mantesso, Alexandre Moratto
“A Chiara” Neon Jonas Carpignano
“American Underdog” Lionsgate David Aaron Cohen, Andrew Erwin, Jon Erwin
“Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn” Magnolia Pictures Radu Jude
“Bruised” Netflix Michelle Rosenfarb
“Cicada Strand Releasing Matt Fifer, Sheldon D. Brown
“Encounter” Amazon Studios Joe Barton, Michael Pearce
“Finch” Apple Original Films Craig Luck, Ivor Powell
“Free Guy” 20th Century Studios Matt Lieberman, Zak Penn
“Holler” IFC Films Nicole Riegel
“I’m Your Man” Bleecker Street Maria Schrader, Jan Schomburg, Emma Braslavsky
“John and the Hole” IFC Films Nicolás Giacobone
“Lamb” A24 Valdimar Jóhannsson, Sjón
“Memoria” Neon Apichatpong Weerasethakul
“No Sudden Move” HBO Max Ed Solomon
“Petite Maman” Neon Celine Sciamma
“Raya and the Last Dragon” Walt Disney Pictures Qui Nguyen, Adele Lim
“Swan Song” Magnolia Pictures Todd Stephens
“Test Pattern” Kino Lorber Shatara Michelle Ford
“The Colour Room” Sky Cinema Claire Peate
“The Electrical Life of Louis Wain” Amazon Studios Will Sharpe, Simon Stephenson
“The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain” Gravitas Ventures David Midell
“The Tomorrow War” Amazon Studios Zach Dean
“The Velvet Underground” Apple Original Films Todd Haynes
“Together Together” Bleecker Street Nikole Beckwith
“Together” Bleecker Street Dennis Kelly
“Wild Indian” Vertical Entertainment Lyle Mitchell Corbine, Jr.

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best Original Screenplay)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The most significant Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. Woody Allen has the most wins in original screenplay with three and nominations at 16. Charles Brackett, Paddy Chayefsky, Quentin Tarantino and Billy Wilder won twice. Federico Fellini is the second most nominated writer with six nominations. The most recent winner is Emerald Fennell for “Promising Young Woman.”


2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022





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